BOM, Materials, and Components

Framework Changes For ai-opportunity-radar.md

1. Add social_consensus_velocity: how quickly a name's mentions, reposts, and media articles rise relative to new primary industrial evidence. If this rises faster than evidence_velocity, increase consensus_priced_score.
2. Add primary_evidence_ratio: primary sources / total sources used for a thesis. X screenshots and reposts count low; company releases, customer announcements, filings, earnings calls, and regulator/project documents count high.
3. Add design_in_lock_score: whether the component is qualified into a customer architecture with 12-24 month replacement friction, reference-design inclusion, standards compatibility, or reliability certification.
4. Add capacity_rights_score: whether customers have purchase commitments, future capacity access rights, LTAs, or scarce foundry/wafer/assembly allocation.
5. Add revenue_conversion_gate: for early photonics/CXL/robotics names, require evidence that NRE/design-in is turning into product revenue before core-pool inclusion.
6. Modify consensus scoring: a stock repeatedly amplified by Serenity-derived threads should default to consensus_priced_score >= 3 unless market cap/liquidity and primary evidence still show real neglect.
7. Separate bottleneck_theme from bottleneck_capture: optical interconnect, CXL, HDD, and power can all be real bottlenecks, but individual stock inclusion still needs oligopoly capture.

Scoring Guidance For Next Radar Run

• SIVE: bottleneck_score high, consensus_priced_score now at least 3.5-4, discovery_gap lower than early March. Label: watch_for_pullback or observation_high_heat, not core until product revenue and oligopoly capture are independently verified.
• STX/WDC: bottleneck real, but consensus score has risen. Label remains watch_for_pullback; do not upgrade to underdiscovered.
• SNDK/SMI: NAND/controller beneficiaries, but commodity-cycle and allocation dynamics matter. Label cycle_beta unless controller monopoly is proven.
• PENG/CXL: evidence velocity improving; monopoly score unclear. Label execution_option pending CXL ecosystem capture analysis.
• MRVL/AVGO: platform winners, increasingly consensus. Use them as demand/architecture signals; core inclusion requires valuation discipline.
• Power / electrical infra: DCD cancellation strengthens the time-to-power thesis. Raise evidence_velocity for onsite power and electrical equipment; add cancelled/paused project tracking as a primary signal.

Final reminder: Big-account commentary is only a strategy-sample generator. A stock can enter the main radar only after independent monopoly / oligopoly potential reasoning proves that the company captures an unavoidable bottleneck layer.