Monopoly and Oligopoly Gate

Hard Gate: Monopoly / Oligopoly Potential

Do not select a stock for the Top 10 unless it either already has, or has a credible path toward, monopoly-like or oligopoly-like control over a bottleneck layer.

This must be derived by reasoning from market structure, not copied from search results.

Required reasoning chain:

1. Define the narrow bottleneck market.

Example: not "AI chips", but "DDR5 RCD/MRCD/MDB for server memory modules" or "PCIe/CXL retimers for AI servers".

1. Identify why customers cannot easily avoid this layer.

Examples: standards requirement, qualification cycle, platform compatibility, reliability risk, switching cost, supply scarcity.

1. Identify why competitors cannot easily enter.

Examples: SerDes expertise, JEDEC/CXL/PCIe standards participation, hyperscaler design-in, long validation cycles, IP portfolio, customer certification.

1. Identify the company's position in that bottleneck.

Examples: current share, design wins, platform inclusion, customer concentration in leading buyers, ecosystem role.

1. Identify the failure mode.

Examples: standard changes, customer self-development, second-source pressure, price compression, replacement by another protocol.

Monopoly potential score:

• 1: Commodity supplier; no structural control.
• 2: Niche supplier but easy to substitute.
• 3: Oligopoly candidate; some switching cost or certification moat.
• 4: Strong oligopoly position in a narrow bottleneck market.
• 5: De facto monopoly or unavoidable platform layer with durable pricing power.

Top 10 rule:

monopoly_potential_score >= 3.5

If a company has a strong AI narrative but a weak monopoly path, label it avoid_narrative_only or cycle_beta, not a core pick.